Dating historic activity at Oso site shows recurring major landslides

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The chronology comprises alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity. A recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak. During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year.

Similarly, during an expansion, economic activity rises substantially, spreads across the economy, and usually lasts for several years. In both recessions and expansions, brief reversals in economic activity may occur-a recession may include a short period of expansion followed by further decline; an expansion may include a short period of contraction followed by further growth.

The Committee applies its judgment based on the above definitions of recessions and expansions and has no fixed rule to determine whether a contraction is only a short interruption of an expansion, or an expansion is only a short interruption of a contraction. The most recent example of such a judgment that was less than obvious was in , when the Committee determined that the contraction that began in was not a continuation of the one that began in , but rather a separate full recession.

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The Business Cycle Dating Committee’s general procedure for determining the dates of business cycles Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to the NBER’s recession dating procedure? Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them.

In , for example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. In the recession beginning in December and ending in June , real GDP declined in the first, third, and fourth quarters of and in the first quarter of

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A lidar image of the Stillaguamish River with newly calculated ages for the landslides. Radiocarbon dating of woody debris shows that the huge Rowan Landslide, on the left, happened only about years ago. The findings , published online Dec. The method shows that the slopes in the area around Oso have collapsed on average once every years, and at a higher rate of about once every years over the past 2, years.

UW graduate student Sean LaHusen pointing to buried debris at an older slide on the north fork of the Stillaguamish River. In late summer of , the researchers began their work wading along riverbanks to look for preserved branches or trees that could be used to date previous landslides. Results from several debris samples show that the Rowan landslide, approximately five times the size of the Oso slide, took place just to years ago. The Headache Creek landslide is within a couple hundred years of 6, years old.

Previous UW research had shown a history of geologic activity at the Oso site, including previous major landslides and a recent small slide at the same slope that collapsed in

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